RESEARCH · WORKING NOTE · Aug 2026 · Normallab · 12 min
Twenty million heat pumps. One hundred gigawatts.
A plan to mass-manufacture battery-integrated heat pumps, engineer the labor out of installing them, and turn America's biggest heating goal into its largest distributed battery.
105 GW
distributed battery power across the fleet
20M
heat pumps deployed by 2030
315 GWh
energy storage at 3-hour duration
$117B
install soft costs engineered out

The mandate & the math
The demand signal exists. The delivery system doesn't.
The grid is being asked to do two enormous things at once: absorb record new load, and electrify heating for tens of millions of buildings. A coalition of 24 governors — representing over half the U.S. population — has pledged 20 million heat pump installations by 2030. The machines are not the bottleneck. The labor is.
Soft costs of HVAC and electrical work routinely run two to three times the equipment itself, and every install competes for the same scarce electricians and panel capacity the grid buildout needs. NERC now forecasts U.S. summer peaks growing 224 GW in ten years — its largest jump on record — while data centers and new factories bid away the transformers, switchgear, and electricians buildings depend on.
Battery-powered heat pumps are the counterweight: they meet heating demand without competing for that constrained equipment and labor, and every install adds storage and flexibility that hardens the grid for the new loads too.
20M
heat pumps pledged by 24 governors, by 2030
224 GW
NERC's 10-year summer peak growth forecast
Where the mandate lives
The 24 U.S. Climate Alliance governors behind the 20-million-unit pledge — about 55% of the U.S. population

Step 01
Engineer out the soft costs.
The most integrated all-in-one liquid-cooling heat pump in America: no field-built refrigerant linesets, no on-site charge work, no bespoke ductwork engineering. The thermal loop is sealed and tested at the factory. The unit places like an appliance, not a construction project.
When the machine absorbs the craft, install hours collapse — from roughly forty crew-hours to six — and soft costs collapse with them. About 70% of a heat pump's installed cost is labor and related soft costs, not the machine. The cheapest field hour is the one the factory already did.
6 hrs
install labor, versus ~40 conventional
$117B
soft costs engineered out across 20M units
Install economics
What one install saves when the factory does the field's work
$5,830
saved per install · 34 crew-hours saved
$117B
across the fleet at 20M units
680M hrs
crew-hours returned to the trades
Where the install dollars go
One installed unit, conventional vs. ours — equipment held equal at $6,500, driven by the sliders above
View data table
| Equipment | Field labor | Electrical upgrade (expected) | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conventional | $6,500 | $4,800 | $1,750 | $13,050 |
| Normallab | $6,500 | $720 | $0 | $7,220 |

Step 02
Put a battery in every unit.
The second bottleneck is electrical: panel upgrades, service upgrades, utility queues, and the electricians to do all of it. A battery-integrated heat pump sidesteps the blockage — the battery covers the surges while the unit draws a steady trickle, so it connects to the panel a building already has. No upgrade, no queue, no wait.
LBNL found 96% of homes with 100-amp panels could add a heat pump without upsizing if peaks are managed. A built-in battery is that management, in hardware.
And the batteries don't just unblock installs. Deployed millions of times, in SKUs from 5 kW to 25 kW, they add up to utility-scale storage — placed exactly where the load is: 105 GW of distributed battery power, 315 GWh of energy, roughly double today's entire U.S. utility-scale fleet.
105 GW
fleet battery power at 20M units
315 GWh
energy storage at 3-hour duration
96%
of 100-amp homes need no panel upsize (LBNL)
Fleet capacity
Set the deployment, the SKU mix, and the battery sizing — see what the fleet becomes
105 GW
fleet battery power · ≈14% of U.S. peak · ≈1.9× today's utility-scale fleet
315 GWh
fleet energy · ≈53% of projected U.S. storage by 2030
5.3 kW
avg battery per unit · avg unit rating 10.5 kW
SKU mix shares are normalized automatically. U.S. peak demand ≈ 745 GW.
Where the gigawatts come from
Fleet battery power contributed by each SKU size
View data table
| SKU | Share | Battery power |
|---|---|---|
| 5 kW | 40% | 20.0 GW |
| 10 kW | 30% | 30.0 GW |
| 15 kW | 15% | 22.5 GW |
| 20 kW | 10% | 20.0 GW |
| 25 kW | 5% | 12.5 GW |
| Total | 105.0 GW |
The gigawatt context
Our fleet at your settings, against the grid numbers that define the decade — all in GW

Step 03
Turn a cost into an asset.
A heat pump today is bought as a cost. Fleet-managed, it becomes an asset. Every unit is a thermal battery and an electric battery in one box — coordinated at the building level to shape a whole building's load, and at the grid level to shift millions of small loads in concert.
That flexibility is capacity utilities pay for, year after year. DOE and Brattle find distributed capacity costs utilities 40–60% less than peakers or grid batteries; programs typically clear $50–150 per kilowatt-year. At fleet scale that is $11 billion a year, recurring — the payment that flips a heat pump from a purchase into infrastructure.
$11B/yr
annual grid value, fleet-wide
$525
per unit, per year — cost becomes asset
Grid value of the fleet
What coordinated flexibility earns annually
DOE and Brattle find distributed capacity costs utilities 40–60% less than peakers or grid batteries; programs typically clear $50–150 per kW-year.
$11B/yr
annual grid value — recurring, fleet-wide
$525
per unit, per year — the payment that flips cost to asset
$105B
over 10 years, before energy-bill savings

Why we can do this
Vertically integrated, in America.
Design, manufacturing, and supply chain under one roof. That is not a slogan; it is the mechanism. When the team that designs the thermal loop sits next to the line that builds it, the install-hour problem becomes an engineering problem — and engineering problems get solved on factory timelines, not construction timelines.
Integration is also why multiple SKUs can run in parallel, from 5 kW to 25 kW, sharing a common battery, controls, and liquid-cooling architecture. One platform, many sizes, one fleet. Re-industrializing this supply chain is how the cost curve keeps bending — and it is the moat.
The ramp to 2030
Cumulative units deployed — an S-curve as factory lines come online in parallel
View data table
| Year | Added | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.4M | 0.4M |
| 2027 | 1.6M | 2.0M |
| 2028 | 4.0M | 6.0M |
| 2029 | 6.4M | 12.4M |
| 2030 | 7.6M | 20.0M |

One platform, four markets
The same machine, everywhere the grid is stuck.
Residential (5–10 kW): the appliance install — no linesets, no panel upgrade, no wait. A home install that touches none of the constrained resources is an install that happens this month, not next year.
Commercial (15–25 kW, ganged): batteries carry the HVAC peak so the service is sized to the average — the building drops one or two switchgear classes and exits the 52–80 week equipment queue entirely.
Industrial (25 kW arrays): process heat is up to 51% of on-site industrial energy and less than 5% electric. Storage-buffered arrays electrify it without forcing a bigger interconnection than the wires can give.
Agrivoltaic land (solar-paired): 10 GW of solar already shares 62,000 acres with crops. Greenhouses, dairies, and processing run on exactly the low-temperature heat these units deliver — generation, storage, and demand on the same acre.
4
markets on one liquid-cooled platform
52–80 wks
switchgear queue a shaved peak escapes
Load footprint & switchgear calculator
One commercial building — what fleet-controlled heat pumps with batteries do to its electrical service
1,200 A → 800 A
service before → after · 1,069 A → 770 A actual · 480 V, 3φ, 0.9 PF
224 kW
peak shaved · 28% off the building's peak
−1 gear class
standard 16-wk gear vs 66-wk custom queue
−3.2 months
powered on at month 18.0 vs 21.2
5.6 GW
returned to the grid across 25,000 buildings · ≈$560M/yr as VPP capacity
Lead times become schedule
Same building, two electrical paths — the switchgear order sets the power-on date
Peak control & the virtual power plant, in one picture
A design day — batteries carry the HVAC peak, refill overnight, and the shaved band becomes VPP capacity the grid can dispatch
View data table
| Hour | Uncontrolled | Controlled | To VPP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | 264 kW | 342 kW | 0 kW |
| 3:00 | 264 kW | 343 kW | 0 kW |
| 6:00 | 378 kW | 378 kW | 0 kW |
| 9:00 | 535 kW | 497 kW | 39 kW |
| 12:00 | 686 kW | 542 kW | 144 kW |
| 15:00 | 800 kW | 576 kW | 224 kW |
| 18:00 | 686 kW | 542 kW | 144 kW |
| 21:00 | 319 kW | 281 kW | 39 kW |
All calculator figures are planning estimates, not commitments. Deployment mix, battery sizing, ramp shape, and program values are adjustable assumptions.

The counterweight
Meet the demand without joining the fight.
Every install returns an electrician-day and a piece of distribution capacity to the grid buildout — while adding storage behind the meter that rides through outages and shaves the evening peak. A plan that only makes more machines doesn't move either number. A plan that removes install labor moves both.
This working note carries live calculators — deployment mix, battery sizing, SKU shares, ramp shape. Every number recalculates as the sliders move.







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The mandate & the math
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