RESEARCH · WORKING NOTE · Aug 2026 · Normallab · 12 min

Twenty million heat pumps. One hundred gigawatts.

A plan to mass-manufacture battery-integrated heat pumps, engineer the labor out of installing them, and turn America's biggest heating goal into its largest distributed battery.

105 GW

distributed battery power across the fleet

20M

heat pumps deployed by 2030

315 GWh

energy storage at 3-hour duration

$117B

install soft costs engineered out

A coastal city rising beyond green fields on the Pacific shore

The mandate & the math

The demand signal exists. The delivery system doesn't.

The grid is being asked to do two enormous things at once: absorb record new load, and electrify heating for tens of millions of buildings. A coalition of 24 governors — representing over half the U.S. population — has pledged 20 million heat pump installations by 2030. The machines are not the bottleneck. The labor is.

Soft costs of HVAC and electrical work routinely run two to three times the equipment itself, and every install competes for the same scarce electricians and panel capacity the grid buildout needs. NERC now forecasts U.S. summer peaks growing 224 GW in ten years — its largest jump on record — while data centers and new factories bid away the transformers, switchgear, and electricians buildings depend on.

Battery-powered heat pumps are the counterweight: they meet heating demand without competing for that constrained equipment and labor, and every install adds storage and flexibility that hardens the grid for the new loads too.

20M

heat pumps pledged by 24 governors, by 2030

224 GW

NERC's 10-year summer peak growth forecast

Where the mandate lives

The 24 U.S. Climate Alliance governors behind the 20-million-unit pledge — about 55% of the U.S. population

Alaska — not currently in the coalitionAKMaine — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeMEVermont — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeVTNew Hampshire — not currently in the coalitionNHWashington — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeWAIdaho — not currently in the coalitionIDMontana — not currently in the coalitionMTNorth Dakota — not currently in the coalitionNDMinnesota — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeMNWisconsin — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeWIMichigan — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeMINew York — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeNYMassachusetts — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeMARhode Island — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeRIOregon — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeORNevada — not currently in the coalitionNVWyoming — not currently in the coalitionWYSouth Dakota — not currently in the coalitionSDIowa — not currently in the coalitionIAIllinois — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeILIndiana — not currently in the coalitionINOhio — not currently in the coalitionOHPennsylvania — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgePANew Jersey — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeNJConnecticut — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeCTCalifornia — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeCAUtah — not currently in the coalitionUTColorado — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeCONebraska — not currently in the coalitionNEMissouri — not currently in the coalitionMOKentucky — not currently in the coalitionKYWest Virginia — not currently in the coalitionWVVirginia — not currently in the coalitionVAMaryland — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeMDDelaware — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeDEArizona — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeAZNew Mexico — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeNMKansas — not currently in the coalitionKSArkansas — not currently in the coalitionARTennessee — not currently in the coalitionTNNorth Carolina — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeNCSouth Carolina — not currently in the coalitionSCGuam — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeGUOklahoma — not currently in the coalitionOKLouisiana — not currently in the coalitionLAMississippi — not currently in the coalitionMSAlabama — not currently in the coalitionALGeorgia — not currently in the coalitionGAHawaiʻi — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgeHITexas — not currently in the coalitionTXFlorida — not currently in the coalitionFLPuerto Rico — Climate Alliance, part of the 20M pledgePR
Climate Alliance pledge state / territoryNot (yet) in the coalition
Factory-built solar-thermal forms in a field

Step 01

Engineer out the soft costs.

The most integrated all-in-one liquid-cooling heat pump in America: no field-built refrigerant linesets, no on-site charge work, no bespoke ductwork engineering. The thermal loop is sealed and tested at the factory. The unit places like an appliance, not a construction project.

When the machine absorbs the craft, install hours collapse — from roughly forty crew-hours to six — and soft costs collapse with them. About 70% of a heat pump's installed cost is labor and related soft costs, not the machine. The cheapest field hour is the one the factory already did.

6 hrs

install labor, versus ~40 conventional

$117B

soft costs engineered out across 20M units

Install economics

What one install saves when the factory does the field's work

$5,830

saved per install · 34 crew-hours saved

$117B

across the fleet at 20M units

680M hrs

crew-hours returned to the trades

Where the install dollars go

One installed unit, conventional vs. ours — equipment held equal at $6,500, driven by the sliders above

$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000ConventionalConventional · Equipment: $6,500Conventional · Field labor: $4,800Conventional · Electrical upgrade (expected): $1,750$13,050NormallabNormallab · Equipment: $6,500Normallab · Field labor: $720$7,220
EquipmentField laborElectrical upgrade (expected)
View data table
EquipmentField laborElectrical upgrade (expected)Total
Conventional$6,500$4,800$1,750$13,050
Normallab$6,500$720$0$7,220
An array of battery-integrated solar-thermal units among plantings

Step 02

Put a battery in every unit.

The second bottleneck is electrical: panel upgrades, service upgrades, utility queues, and the electricians to do all of it. A battery-integrated heat pump sidesteps the blockage — the battery covers the surges while the unit draws a steady trickle, so it connects to the panel a building already has. No upgrade, no queue, no wait.

LBNL found 96% of homes with 100-amp panels could add a heat pump without upsizing if peaks are managed. A built-in battery is that management, in hardware.

And the batteries don't just unblock installs. Deployed millions of times, in SKUs from 5 kW to 25 kW, they add up to utility-scale storage — placed exactly where the load is: 105 GW of distributed battery power, 315 GWh of energy, roughly double today's entire U.S. utility-scale fleet.

105 GW

fleet battery power at 20M units

315 GWh

energy storage at 3-hour duration

96%

of 100-amp homes need no panel upsize (LBNL)

Fleet capacity

Set the deployment, the SKU mix, and the battery sizing — see what the fleet becomes

105 GW

fleet battery power · ≈14% of U.S. peak · ≈1.9× today's utility-scale fleet

315 GWh

fleet energy · ≈53% of projected U.S. storage by 2030

5.3 kW

avg battery per unit · avg unit rating 10.5 kW

SKU mix shares are normalized automatically. U.S. peak demand ≈ 745 GW.

Where the gigawatts come from

Fleet battery power contributed by each SKU size

012.52537.550GW5 kW SKU · 40% of mix — 20.0 GW battery power205 kW10 kW SKU · 30% of mix — 30.0 GW battery power3010 kW15 kW SKU · 15% of mix — 22.5 GW battery power2315 kW20 kW SKU · 10% of mix — 20.0 GW battery power2020 kW25 kW SKU · 5% of mix — 12.5 GW battery power1325 kW
View data table
SKUShareBattery power
5 kW40%20.0 GW
10 kW30%30.0 GW
15 kW15%22.5 GW
20 kW10%20.0 GW
25 kW5%12.5 GW
Total105.0 GW

The gigawatt context

Our fleet at your settings, against the grid numbers that define the decade — all in GW

0 GW63 GW125 GW188 GW250 GWOur fleet (your settings)Our fleet (your settings): 105 GW105 GWU.S. utility-scale battery fleet, mid-2026 (EIA)U.S. utility-scale battery fleet, mid-2026 (EIA): 52 GW52 GWDOE virtual power plant need by 2030DOE virtual power plant need by 2030: 80–160 GW80–160 GWNERC 10-yr summer peak demand growthNERC 10-yr summer peak demand growth: 224 GW224 GW
An illustrated green city where generation, storage, and land share space

Step 03

Turn a cost into an asset.

A heat pump today is bought as a cost. Fleet-managed, it becomes an asset. Every unit is a thermal battery and an electric battery in one box — coordinated at the building level to shape a whole building's load, and at the grid level to shift millions of small loads in concert.

That flexibility is capacity utilities pay for, year after year. DOE and Brattle find distributed capacity costs utilities 40–60% less than peakers or grid batteries; programs typically clear $50–150 per kilowatt-year. At fleet scale that is $11 billion a year, recurring — the payment that flips a heat pump from a purchase into infrastructure.

$11B/yr

annual grid value, fleet-wide

$525

per unit, per year — cost becomes asset

Grid value of the fleet

What coordinated flexibility earns annually

DOE and Brattle find distributed capacity costs utilities 40–60% less than peakers or grid batteries; programs typically clear $50–150 per kW-year.

$11B/yr

annual grid value — recurring, fleet-wide

$525

per unit, per year — the payment that flips cost to asset

$105B

over 10 years, before energy-bill savings

Sealed factory-built thermal units installed in a garden setting

Why we can do this

Vertically integrated, in America.

Design, manufacturing, and supply chain under one roof. That is not a slogan; it is the mechanism. When the team that designs the thermal loop sits next to the line that builds it, the install-hour problem becomes an engineering problem — and engineering problems get solved on factory timelines, not construction timelines.

Integration is also why multiple SKUs can run in parallel, from 5 kW to 25 kW, sharing a common battery, controls, and liquid-cooling architecture. One platform, many sizes, one fleet. Re-industrializing this supply chain is how the cost curve keeps bending — and it is the moat.

The ramp to 2030

Cumulative units deployed — an S-curve as factory lines come online in parallel

06.312.518.825Millions of units2026 · +0.4M this year — 0.4M cumulative20262027 · +1.6M this year — 2.0M cumulative20272028 · +4.0M this year — 6.0M cumulative20282029 · +6.4M this year — 12.4M cumulative20292030 · +7.6M this year — 20.0M cumulative203020M
View data table
YearAddedCumulative
20260.4M0.4M
20271.6M2.0M
20284.0M6.0M
20296.4M12.4M
20307.6M20.0M
Workers moving through terraced green farmland

One platform, four markets

The same machine, everywhere the grid is stuck.

Residential (5–10 kW): the appliance install — no linesets, no panel upgrade, no wait. A home install that touches none of the constrained resources is an install that happens this month, not next year.

Commercial (15–25 kW, ganged): batteries carry the HVAC peak so the service is sized to the average — the building drops one or two switchgear classes and exits the 52–80 week equipment queue entirely.

Industrial (25 kW arrays): process heat is up to 51% of on-site industrial energy and less than 5% electric. Storage-buffered arrays electrify it without forcing a bigger interconnection than the wires can give.

Agrivoltaic land (solar-paired): 10 GW of solar already shares 62,000 acres with crops. Greenhouses, dairies, and processing run on exactly the low-temperature heat these units deliver — generation, storage, and demand on the same acre.

4

markets on one liquid-cooled platform

52–80 wks

switchgear queue a shaved peak escapes

Load footprint & switchgear calculator

One commercial building — what fleet-controlled heat pumps with batteries do to its electrical service

1,200 A → 800 A

service before → after · 1,069 A → 770 A actual · 480 V, 3φ, 0.9 PF

224 kW

peak shaved · 28% off the building's peak

−1 gear class

standard 16-wk gear vs 66-wk custom queue

−3.2 months

powered on at month 18.0 vs 21.2

5.6 GW

returned to the grid across 25,000 buildings · ≈$560M/yr as VPP capacity

Lead times become schedule

Same building, two electrical paths — the switchgear order sets the power-on date

mo 0mo 6mo 12mo 18mo 24Custom-gear buildingCustom-gear building — Design & permits: mo 0.0–6.0Custom-gear building — Construction: mo 6.0–16.0Custom-gear building — Energize & commission: mo 19.2–21.2Custom-gear building — Switchgear procurement (1,200 A custom · 66 wks): mo 4.0–19.2on at mo 21.2Normallab-controlled buildingNormallab-controlled building — Design & permits: mo 0.0–6.0Normallab-controlled building — Construction: mo 6.0–16.0Normallab-controlled building — Energize & commission: mo 16.0–18.0Normallab-controlled building — Switchgear procurement (800 A standard · 16 wks): mo 4.0–7.7on at mo 18.03.2 months sooner

Peak control & the virtual power plant, in one picture

A design day — batteries carry the HVAC peak, refill overnight, and the shaved band becomes VPP capacity the grid can dispatch

02505007501000kW12am6am12pm6pm11pmShaved peak → VPP capacity→ VPP800 kW peak576 kW
With Normallab fleet controlUncontrolled buildingShaved peak → VPP capacity
View data table
HourUncontrolledControlledTo VPP
0:00264 kW342 kW0 kW
3:00264 kW343 kW0 kW
6:00378 kW378 kW0 kW
9:00535 kW497 kW39 kW
12:00686 kW542 kW144 kW
15:00800 kW576 kW224 kW
18:00686 kW542 kW144 kW
21:00319 kW281 kW39 kW

All calculator figures are planning estimates, not commitments. Deployment mix, battery sizing, ramp shape, and program values are adjustable assumptions.

A green field under towering clouds

The counterweight

Meet the demand without joining the fight.

Every install returns an electrician-day and a piece of distribution capacity to the grid buildout — while adding storage behind the meter that rides through outages and shaves the evening peak. A plan that only makes more machines doesn't move either number. A plan that removes install labor moves both.

This working note carries live calculators — deployment mix, battery sizing, SKU shares, ramp shape. Every number recalculates as the sliders move.

Go deeper

The full working note carries live calculators — adjust any slider and every number recalculates.